Economy Kenya NL-ECON-0142

Will the Kenya Shilling close below KES 130.00 to the US Dollar on 31 August 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

62% Ndio

62% Ndio 38% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 41% then, 62% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Central Bank of Kenya — daily indicative exchange rates

Closes

31 August 2026

Settles Ndio if

The Central Bank of Kenya daily indicative exchange rate published for 31 August 2026 is below KES 130.00 to the US Dollar.

Settles La if

That published rate is KES 130.00 or above.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

The shilling has held near KES 129.5 through July, with the Treasury citing exchange rate stability and record foreign-exchange reserves.

KSh 418,900 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 16.13
Payout if correct: KSh 161.30
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 3.07
You receive if correct: KSh 158.23
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will the Kenya Shilling close below KES 130.00 to the US Dollar on 31 August 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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