Weather Kenya NL-WX-0031
Will the Kenya Meteorological Department forecast above-average October–December rainfall for the Nairobi region?
Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.
61% Ndio
61% Ndio 39% La
Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 50% then, 61% now. Illustrative
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How this market settles
Settles from
Kenya Meteorological Department — seasonal forecast
Closes
15 September 2026
Settles Ndio if
The Kenya Meteorological Department seasonal forecast for October to December 2026 states above-average rainfall for the Nairobi region.
Settles La if
That forecast states near-average or below-average rainfall for the Nairobi region.
Voided if
The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.
Background, not a forecast
The October–December short rains determine harvest outcomes and food inflation into 2027.
KSh 78,900 traded Illustrative