Business Kenya NL-BUS-0088

Will Safaricom report more than 35 million M-PESA monthly active customers in its next published results?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

63% Ndio

63% Ndio 37% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 54% then, 63% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Safaricom PLC — published financial results

Closes

6 November 2026

Settles Ndio if

Safaricom PLC published financial results for the next reporting period state more than 35 million M-PESA monthly active customers.

Settles La if

Those published results state 35 million M-PESA monthly active customers or fewer.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

M-PESA remains the dominant payment rail in the market NdioLa operates in.

KSh 264,800 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 15.87
Payout if correct: KSh 158.70
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 2.93
You receive if correct: KSh 155.77
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will Safaricom report more than 35 million M-PESA monthly active customers in its next published results?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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