Business Kenya NL-BUS-0090

Will construction begin on the first phase of Nairobi's approved CBD mass transit network before 31 December 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

33% Ndio

33% Ndio 67% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 42% then, 33% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Nairobi City County — official project announcement

Closes

31 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

An official Nairobi City County project announcement published before 31 December 2026 states that construction has begun on the first phase of the approved CBD mass transit network.

Settles La if

No such announcement is published before that date.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Nairobi City approved the opening phase of a metropolitan mass transit network running beneath the CBD and extending into Eastlands.

KSh 71,500 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 30.30
Payout if correct: KSh 303.00
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 10.15
You receive if correct: KSh 292.85
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will construction begin on the first phase of Nairobi's approved CBD mass transit network before 31 December 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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