Business East Africa NL-BUS-0091

Will intra-EAC trade for Q2 2026 be reported above USD 46.3 billion?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

54% Ndio

54% Ndio 46% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 47% then, 54% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

EAC Secretariat — quarterly trade statistics

Closes

31 October 2026

Settles Ndio if

EAC Secretariat quarterly trade statistics for the second quarter of 2026 report intra-EAC trade above USD 46.3 billion.

Settles La if

Those statistics report intra-EAC trade of USD 46.3 billion or below.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Intra-EAC trade reached USD 46.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

KSh 62,300 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 18.52
Payout if correct: KSh 185.20
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 4.26
You receive if correct: KSh 180.94
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will intra-EAC trade for Q2 2026 be reported above USD 46.3 billion?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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