Geopolitics East Africa NL-GEO-0120

Will the East African Community admit a new partner state before 31 December 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

18% Ndio

18% Ndio 82% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 26% then, 18% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

EAC Summit communiqué

Closes

31 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

An EAC Summit communiqué published before 31 December 2026 records the admission of a partner state additional to the eight in the bloc when this market opened.

Settles La if

No EAC Summit communiqué published before that date records an admission.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

The EAC currently has eight partner states, Somalia having joined most recently in 2024.

KSh 96,400 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 55.56
Payout if correct: KSh 555.60
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 22.78
You receive if correct: KSh 532.82
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will the East African Community admit a new partner state before 31 December 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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