Geopolitics Global NL-GEO-0122

Will COP31 in Antalya adopt a final cover decision by consensus?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

58% Ndio

58% Ndio 42% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 49% then, 58% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

UNFCCC — official session outcome documents

Closes

30 November 2026

Settles Ndio if

UNFCCC official session outcome documents for COP31 record a final cover decision adopted by consensus.

Settles La if

Those documents record no final cover decision, or record one adopted other than by consensus.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

The UN Climate Change Conference convenes at the Antalya Expo Center in Turkey under a dual-leadership arrangement.

KSh 204,500 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 17.24
Payout if correct: KSh 172.40
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 3.62
You receive if correct: KSh 168.78
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will COP31 in Antalya adopt a final cover decision by consensus?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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