Geopolitics East Africa NL-GEO-0121

Will the AfCFTA Secretariat publish an expanded tariff concession schedule before 31 December 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

44% Ndio

44% Ndio 56% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 50% then, 44% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

AfCFTA Secretariat — official publication

Closes

31 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

The AfCFTA Secretariat publishes, before 31 December 2026, a tariff concession schedule covering more tariff lines or more state parties than the schedule in force when this market opened.

Settles La if

No such publication is made by the AfCFTA Secretariat before that date.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

AfCFTA is intended to lower tariffs across a continental market whose trade has topped USD 1.5 trillion.

KSh 39,600 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 22.73
Payout if correct: KSh 227.30
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 6.37
You receive if correct: KSh 220.93
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will the AfCFTA Secretariat publish an expanded tariff concession schedule before 31 December 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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