Politics Kenya NL-POL-0210

Will a Cabinet reshuffle be gazetted in Kenya before 31 December 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

55% Ndio

55% Ndio 45% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 44% then, 55% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Kenya Gazette

Closes

31 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

A Kenya Gazette notice appointing or reassigning one or more Cabinet Secretaries is published before 31 December 2026.

Settles La if

No such notice is published in the Kenya Gazette before that date.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Cabinet changes have been a recurring feature of the current administration, and pressure builds ahead of the 2027 cycle.

KSh 336,100 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 18.18
Payout if correct: KSh 181.80
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 4.09
You receive if correct: KSh 177.71
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will a Cabinet reshuffle be gazetted in Kenya before 31 December 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

More in Politics

Republicans hold the House?

2027 election date gazetted?