Politics Kenya NL-POL-0211

Will the IEBC gazette the date of the 2027 general election on or before 31 March 2027?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

74% Ndio

74% Ndio 26% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 66% then, 74% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Kenya Gazette

Closes

31 March 2027

Settles Ndio if

A Kenya Gazette notice stating the date of the 2027 general election is published on or before 31 March 2027.

Settles La if

No Kenya Gazette notice stating that date is published by then.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Kenya's next general election is due in August 2027.

KSh 148,300 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 13.51
Payout if correct: KSh 135.10
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 1.76
You receive if correct: KSh 133.34
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will the IEBC gazette the date of the 2027 general election on or before 31 March 2027?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

More in Politics

Republicans hold the House?

Cabinet reshuffle in 2026?