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Will the Communications Authority licence a new mobile virtual network operator before 31 December 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

42% Ndio

42% Ndio 58% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 46% then, 42% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Communications Authority of Kenya — quarterly sector statistics report

Closes

31 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

A Communications Authority of Kenya quarterly sector statistics report published before 31 December 2026 records a licensed mobile virtual network operator absent from the report for the quarter in which this market opened.

Settles La if

No report published before that date records an additional licensed mobile virtual network operator.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Kenya continues to lead African startup funding, with pressure on telecom market structure.

KSh 43,800 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 23.81
Payout if correct: KSh 238.10
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 6.91
You receive if correct: KSh 231.19
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will the Communications Authority licence a new mobile virtual network operator before 31 December 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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