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Will BepiColombo enter orbit around Mercury before 31 December 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

76% Ndio

76% Ndio 24% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 68% then, 76% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

European Space Agency — mission status page

Closes

31 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

The European Space Agency mission status page states that BepiColombo has entered orbit around Mercury, before 31 December 2026.

Settles La if

That page states no Mercury orbit insertion before that date.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

The ESA-JAXA BepiColombo mission is expected to enter Mercury orbit in late 2026.

KSh 112,400 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 13.16
Payout if correct: KSh 131.60
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 1.58
You receive if correct: KSh 130.02
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will BepiColombo enter orbit around Mercury before 31 December 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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