Technology Global NL-TECH-0056

Will SpaceX complete 150 or more orbital launches in calendar year 2026?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

52% Ndio

52% Ndio 48% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 44% then, 52% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

FAA licensed launch records

Closes

31 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

FAA licensed launch records show 150 or more SpaceX orbital launches with a launch date in calendar year 2026.

Settles La if

Those records show fewer than 150 such launches.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

SpaceX had completed roughly 66 launches by early June against an internal goal of more than 150 for the year.

KSh 428,100 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 19.23
Payout if correct: KSh 192.30
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 4.62
You receive if correct: KSh 187.68
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will SpaceX complete 150 or more orbital launches in calendar year 2026?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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