Economy Kenya NL-ECON-0143

Will Kenya's headline inflation for August 2026 print above 5.0%?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

41% Ndio

41% Ndio 59% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 52% then, 41% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics — monthly CPI release

Closes

31 August 2026

Settles Ndio if

The headline year-on-year inflation rate for August 2026, in the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics monthly CPI release, is above 5.0%.

Settles La if

That published figure is 5.0% or below.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

CBK targets inflation between 2.5% and 7.5%. Higher global energy and fertiliser prices are the main upside risk.

KSh 187,600 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 24.39
Payout if correct: KSh 243.90
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 7.20
You receive if correct: KSh 236.70
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will Kenya's headline inflation for August 2026 print above 5.0%?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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