Economy Global NL-ECON-0149

Will OPEC+ announce a production increase at its next ministerial meeting?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

39% Ndio

39% Ndio 61% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 48% then, 39% now. Illustrative

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How this market settles

Settles from

OPEC — official press release

Closes

30 September 2026

Settles Ndio if

The OPEC official press release for the next ministerial meeting states an increase in production targets.

Settles La if

That press release states production targets held unchanged or reduced.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Energy prices have been the dominant channel transmitting the Middle East conflict into African economies.

KSh 316,800 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 25.64
Payout if correct: KSh 256.40
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 7.82
You receive if correct: KSh 248.58
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will OPEC+ announce a production increase at its next ministerial meeting?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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