Economy Kenya NL-ECON-0145

Will EPRA lower the maximum retail price of super petrol in Nairobi at the September 2026 review?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

47% Ndio

47% Ndio 53% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 38% then, 47% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

EPRA — monthly maximum retail price notice

Closes

14 September 2026

Settles Ndio if

The EPRA monthly maximum retail price notice covering September 2026 sets the maximum retail price of super petrol in Nairobi below the price set in the preceding notice.

Settles La if

That notice sets the Nairobi maximum retail price of super petrol at or above the price in the preceding notice.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Global crude prices rose through 2026 on the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, feeding directly into the monthly review.

KSh 391,200 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 21.28
Payout if correct: KSh 212.80
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 5.64
You receive if correct: KSh 207.16
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will EPRA lower the maximum retail price of super petrol in Nairobi at the September 2026 review?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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