Economy Kenya NL-ECON-0144

Will the Central Bank of Kenya hold the Central Bank Rate unchanged at its next MPC meeting?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

68% Ndio

68% Ndio 32% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 55% then, 68% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

Central Bank of Kenya — MPC statement

Closes

10 September 2026

Settles Ndio if

The Central Bank of Kenya Monetary Policy Committee statement for the next meeting records the Central Bank Rate as unchanged from its previous level.

Settles La if

That statement records the Central Bank Rate as raised or lowered.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

CBK cut its 2026 growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.3%, citing the Middle East conflict's effect on energy and supply chains.

KSh 212,400 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 14.71
Payout if correct: KSh 147.10
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 2.36
You receive if correct: KSh 144.74
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will the Central Bank of Kenya hold the Central Bank Rate unchanged at its next MPC meeting?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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