Economy Kenya NL-ECON-0146

Will the World Bank revise Kenya's 2026 growth forecast above 4.3% in its next Kenya Economic Update?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

27% Ndio

27% Ndio 73% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 38% then, 27% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

World Bank — Kenya Economic Update

Closes

15 December 2026

Settles Ndio if

The next Kenya Economic Update published by the World Bank states a 2026 growth forecast for Kenya above 4.3%.

Settles La if

That edition states a 2026 growth forecast for Kenya of 4.3% or below.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

The World Bank cut its forecast to 4.3% in July, 0.6 points below its November projection, citing the global energy shock.

KSh 94,100 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 37.04
Payout if correct: KSh 370.40
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 13.52
You receive if correct: KSh 356.88
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will the World Bank revise Kenya's 2026 growth forecast above 4.3% in its next Kenya Economic Update?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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