Economy East Africa NL-ECON-0148

Will Ethiopia's 2026 GDP growth be reported at 9.0% or above?

Prices and volumes shown on this site are illustrative. They are not derived from trading and no market shown here has settled.

49% Ndio

49% Ndio 51% La

Trailing implied probability, twelve points: 56% then, 49% now. Illustrative

Positions are taken in the NdioLa app. Get the app

How this market settles

Settles from

African Development Bank — published country figure

Closes

30 April 2027

Settles Ndio if

The African Development Bank published country figure for Ethiopia's 2026 GDP growth is 9.0% or above.

Settles La if

That published figure is below 9.0%.

Voided if

The named source does not publish a result, or the question becomes unanswerable as written. Everyone holding shares is refunded in full, with no spread or fee retained.

Background, not a forecast

Ethiopia is projected to grow around 9.8% in 2026, leading a region expanding at roughly 6.4%.

KSh 51,700 traded Illustrative

What a position would return

Shares acquired: 20.41
Payout if correct: KSh 204.10
Settlement fee, 5% of net gain: KSh 5.21
You receive if correct: KSh 198.89
You receive if wrong: KSh 0.00

The 5% spread is inside the price shown. It is never a separate line.
The 5% settlement fee applies to net gain only, at settlement, and only where that gain is positive.
Every winning share pays exactly KSh 10.00, whatever the volume.
These figures are illustrative, because the price they start from is.

Will Ethiopia's 2026 GDP growth be reported at 9.0% or above?

How this market settles

Background, not a forecast

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